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Market Watch

Monday, November 15, 2010

Sensex ends 153 pts up; financial, tech, metal, FMCG lead

Equity benchmarks strengthened in last couple of hours after a consolidation as well as sell-off since previous week - the benchmark Nifty closed above 6100 level on Monday and the Sensex added more than 150 points, led by buying in financial, technology, FMCG and metal companies' shares. A short covering after a sell-off in last week was another reason behind this bounce back.

Apurva Shah of Prabhudas Lilladher expects the markets stabilizing more or less at these levels in near term. "I am not expecting any great movements over the next 10-15 days. I do think that we will once again start seeing inflows and looking better from December onwards. So in the near term I think we will stay more or less at these levels but I believe from December end and even going into January we will see a stronger market."

N Krishnan of CLSA said that fund managers are still looking to deploy money at current levels as consumption story is still seen to be strong in India.

On the other side, the sell-off in Reliance Industries, NTPC, HDFC, Jindal Steel, DLF, Maruti, Ranbaxy, Reliance Communications along with cement and Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group (ADAG) companies' shares limited the gains to some extent.

The 30-share BSE Sensex closed at 20,309.69, up 152.80 points or 0.76% and the 50-share NSE Nifty rose 49.95 points or 0.82% to settle at 6,121.60. The Nifty futures closed at 13 points premium, as per provisional data.

However, Krishnan is cautious on the markets due to high commodity prices. He is also concerned that the European debt crisis could cause accident in markets. According to Krishnan, there will be no triggers for re-rating markets in short term.

SBI, India's largest lender, rallied 4.52%; HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank were up 3% & 1.9%, respectively. Axis Bank and IDFC went up 2-3%. Kotak Mahindra Bank and PNB were up 0.6-0.9% while HDFC fell 0.8%.

TCS, Infosys and Wipro from technology pack gained 1-1.9%. M&M from auto space jumped 3.5%; Tata Motors, Bajaj Auto and Hero Honda moved up 0.5% each while Maruti lost 1.2%.

ITC and HUL from FMCG segment climbed 0.6-0.75%. Bharti Airtel from telecom pack went up 1.3% while Reliance Communications slipped 1%.

SAIL, Tata Steel and Sesa Goa rose 1.5-2%; Sterlite Industries and Hindalco gained just 0.4% each. ONGC bounced back in late trade by 0.75%; GAIL was up 1.76% and BPCL up 0.9% whereas Reliance Industries and Cairn India lost 0.5% each.

Cipla from healthcare segment rallied 4.3% and Dr Reddy's Labs went up 1% while Ranbaxy Labs fell 1.9% and Sun Pharma was down 0.6%. BHEL and L&T from capital goods space moved up 0.2-0.4% while Siemens declined 0.6%.

ADAG stocks like Reliance Capital, Reliance Infrastructure and Reliance Power were down 3.3%, 2.16% and 0.71%, respectively. DLF from realty segment lost 1.5%. In cement space, ACC and Ambuja Cements were down 1-2%.

In midcap space, MVL, Wockhardt, CMC, Syndicate Bank and HMT were up 6-13% while Dishman Pharma, IBN18 Broadcast, AIA Engineering, IVRCL Assets and Chambal Fertiliser declined 4-6%.

In smallcap space, Prakash Steelage, Aditya Birla, Hindustan Motors, Newtime Infra and Orient Abrasive shot up 9-13% while Garware Poly was locked at 20% lower circuit. Polyplex Corp, Gitanjali Gems, Uflex and Rico Auto lost 7.7-10%.

Top percentage gainers - Ad Manum Finance, Kaycee Ind, HBPortfolio, Mather & Plat and Bhagwati Auto moved up nearly 20%.

In economic data - India's wholesale price index, in October, eased to 8.58% as against 8.62% last month. Food inflation stood at 14.13% in October compared with 15.71% a month earlier as supplies eased after monsoon rains, helping bring down overall inflation.

Total traded turnover on exchanges stood at Rs 1,62,267.91 core. This included Rs 14,753.79 crore from NSE cash segment, Rs 1,42,905.88 crore from NSE F&O and the rest of Rs 4,608.24 crore from BSE cash segment.

About 1354 shares advanced while 1811 shares declined on BSE. Nearly 285 shares remained unchanged.

At 14:59 hours IST - the benchmark Nifty has tested the 6100 level while the Sensex added more than 100 points in trade today, after a sell-off as well as consolidation since previous week. Banking, technology, FMCG and select auto companies' shares were pushing the markets higher, along with Bharti, Cipla, Tata Steel, BHEL, SAIL and Dr Reddy's Labs.

However, cement, power and Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group (ADAG) companies' shares along with Reliance Industries, HDFC, ONGC, DLF, Reliance Communications, Ranbaxy Labs, Maruti and Hindalco were on sellers' radar, which capped the gains to some extent.

The 30-share BSE Sensex was trading at 20293, up 136 points and the 50-share NSE Nifty was at 6117, up 45 points. The Nifty November futures were trading at 22 points premium. However, the broader indices were marginally in green.

SBI, country's largest lender, surged 4.3% and HDFC Bank gained 3%. ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and IDFC were up 1-3%. PNB gained 0.4%. TCS, Infosys and Wipro from technology pack went up 1.2-1.9%.

In auto space, M&M rose 3.3%; Hero Honda and Bajaj Auto were up 0.4-0.86% while Maruti lost 1.1%. ITC and HUL from FMCG segment went up 0.66%.

ADAG companies' shares like Reliance Communications, Reliance Power, Reliance Infrastructure and Reliance Capital were up 2-3%. Reliance Industries, ONGC and Cairn from oil & gas sector rose 0.4-0.8%.

Sensex lacklustre; ADAG, cement, oil & gas exploration dip

At 14:04 hours IST - the benchmark Sensex has been lacklustre in trade since morning as a part of consolidation post mixed trade in previous two weeks. In diwali week, the markets had rallied sharply while in previous week, indices corrected steeply - Sensex had shed more than 750 points from 21000 level.

On the one side, heavyweights like Reliance Industries, ONGC, L&T, NTPC and HDFC were on sellers' radar. Even ADAG (Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group), cement, FMCG and power sectors along with Hindalco, Tata Motors, Maruti and Ranbaxy Labs were witnessing selling pressure.

However, consistent buying in banking and technology companies' shares along with Bharti, M&M, Cipla, Tata Steel, Sun Pharma and Hero Honda was quite supportive and limited the losses.

The 30-share BSE Sensex was trading at 20127, down 29 points and the 50-share NSE Nifty was at 6067, down 4 points. About 399 shares advanced while 903 shares declined on NSE. The broader indices were down 0.5-0.7%.

Top gainers - Cipla was trading at Rs 339.25, up 2.91%; HDFC Bank was at Rs 2,373, up 2.51%; SBI was at Rs 3,093, up 2.19%; ICICI Bank was at Rs 1,226.50, up 2.17% and M&M was at Rs 789.85, up 2.16%.

Top losers - Reliance Capital was trading at Rs 758.55, down 3.27%; Reliance Infrastructure was at Rs 1,023.80, down 2.44%; Ambuja Cements was at Rs 154.65, down 2.43%; Reliance Communications was at Rs 165.80, down 2.41%; Ranbaxy Labs was at Rs 563.70, down 2.17%; Jaiprakash Associates was at Rs 126.15, down 2.44%; DLF was at Rs 320.25, down 2.23% and Jindal Steel was at Rs 672.15, down 2.1%.

In midcap space, MVL surged 14.66%. Wockhardt, CMC, HMT (Govt will provide Rs 127crore to HMT) and Dewan Housing were up 5.4-11.5%. However, IVRCL Assets, Kwality Dairy, Novartis India, Eicher Motors and Triveni Engg lost 5-6%.

In smallcap space, Newtime Infra rose 17%. Orient Abrasive, Prakash Steelage, SE Investments and Greenply Ind gained 5.5-9.4%. However, Garware Poly was locked at 20% upper circuit. Uflex, Polyplex Corp, Rico Auto and Nagarjuna Fertiliser fell 8-9.5%.

About 1287 shares advanced while 1884 shares declined on BSE. Nearly 279 shares were unchanged.

Nifty tests 6100; Cipla, Sesa Goa, SBI, IDFC, Wipro up

At 12.54 hrs IST, the Nifty was trading around 6100 mark with positive bias. It was a good session for the markets considering the benchmark indices lost nearly 4% last week. Buying was seen in banks, IT, pharma, telecom and FMCG stocks. Selling was seen in realty, oil&gas and consumer durables stocks.

The Sensex was up 69.70 points or 0.35% at 20226.59, and the Nifty was up 28.15 points or 0.46% at 6099.80. About 1374 shares advanced, 1712 shares declined, and 364 shares remain unchanged.

In the largecap space, Cipla, Sesa Goa, SBI, IDFC and Wipro were up 2-3%. On the losing side, Reliance Capital, Ranbaxy Labs, Reliance Communications, Hindalco and Ambuja Cements were down 2-3%.

Index heavyweight Reliance was trading at Rs 1,048.20 down 1.29% from its previous close of Rs 1,061.85. Refinery major HPCL was trading at Rs 461.70 up 1.98% from its previous close of Rs 452.75. Tech major Infosys was trading at Rs 3,003.75 up 0.15% from its previous close of Rs 2,999.25.

Cigarette major ITC was trading at Rs 174.30 up 0.29% from its previous close of Rs 173.80. Hindustan Lever was trading at Rs 299.95 down 0.53% from its previous close of Rs 301.55.

Top gainers on the BSE Midcap: Wockhardt, HMT, MVL, Dewan Housing and Rajesh Exports were up 4-12%.

Top losers on the BSE Midcap: IVRCL Assets, Kwality Dairy, IVRCL Infras, Dishman Pharma and Eicher Motors were down 4-6%.

Top gainers on the BSE Smallcap: Newtime Infra, Orient Abrasive, Prakash Steelage, SE Investments and Sunflag Iron were up 7-17%.

Top losers on the BSE Smallcap: Garware Poly, Polyplex Corp, Uflex, Jindal PolyFilm and Hinduja Foundri were down 6-20%.

Nifty in tight range; banks, technology gain

At 11:50 hours IST - the 50-share NSE Nifty was trading in a narrow range of 6050-6090 since the beginning of trade today. Banking, technology and select healthcare companies' shares along with Bharti, M&M, Bajaj Auto, Tata Steel and BHEL were on buyers' radar, which were quite supportive to the markets.

On the other side, consistent selling in oil & gas exploration, cement and power companies' shares along with DLF, Tata Motors, Hindalco, L&T, Reliance Communications, HDFC, HUL and Ranbaxy Labs capped the gains.

The Sensex was trading at 20185, up 28 points and the Nifty was at 6085, up 13 points. The Nifty November futures were trading at 18 points premium. However, the broader indices like BSE Midcap and Smallcap fell 0.5% each.

In financial space, SBI surged 2.7% and ICICI Bank rose 1.8%. HDFC Bank gained 2% and Axis Bank went up 2.8%. Kotak Mahindra Bank was up 1% and IDFC up 2% while HDFC declined 0.7%.

TCS and Wipro from technology pack moved up 1.5-2%; and Infosys was up just 0.2%. Bharti Airtel from technology pack gained 1.3% while Reliance Communications slipped 2%.

All Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group companies' shares on sellers' radar; Reliance Power, Reliance Infrastructure and Reliance Capital lost 1.7-2.5%.

In oil & gas space, ONGC, Reliance Industries and Cairn India fell 0.5-0.86%.

In midcap space, Wockhardt rose 9.68% and MVL was up 7.05%. Rajesh Exports, Mahindra Holiday and Jet Airways gained 3-3.7%. However, Kwality Dairy, IVRCL Assets, IVRCL Infrastructure, Dishman Pharma and Chambal Fertiliser declined 4-6%.

In smallcap space, Newtime Infra rallied 19.54%. Orient Abrasive, Jindal Cotex, MSP Steel and Sunflag Iron were up 6-11% while Garware Poly plunged 20%. Polyplex Corp, Nagarjuna Fertiliser, Uflex and Orient Paper fell 6-9%.

About 1320 shares advanced while 1838 shares declined on BSE. Nearly 292 shares were unchanged.

Sensex consolidates; RIL, L&T, NTPC, HDFC, DLF slip

At 10:38 hours IST - the benchmark Sensex was consolidating at previous closing value and was hovering just around 20100 level. Power, metal, cement, realty, FMCG, select healthcare and auto companies' shares along with Reliance Industries, L&T, HDFC and Reliance Communications were on sellers’ radar.

However, technology and banking companies' shares along with Bharti, Tata Steel, M&M, Bajaj Auto and Dr Reddy's Labs were supporting the markets.

The 30-share BSE Sensex was trading at 20101, down 56 points and the 50-share NSE Nifty fell 15 points to 6056. The broader indices also declined; the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices fell 0.7% each.

Sean Darby of Nomura says, Asia is not in a bubble zone. "We are closing out the switch recommendation selling Brazil and buying India initiated on May 25. Asia is not in a bubble zone, with approximately 22% of the market cap still showing negative returns for the year and 38% of the market cap below 10% returns. Fund inflows have been particularly heavy into China, India and Korea," he said.

Top losers - Hindalco was trading at Rs 217.50, down 2.47%; DLF was at Rs 319.50, down 2.46%; Reliance Communications was at Rs 166.20, down 2.21%; Reliance Infrastructure was at Rs 1,026.15, down 2.02%; Jaiprakash Associates was at Rs 126.85, down 1.89%; Reliance Capital was at Rs 762, down 2.83% and Reliance Power was at Rs 178.60, down 2.59%.

Top gainers - TCS was trading at Rs 1,074.75, up 1.79%; Wipro was at Rs 432.60, up 1.74%; Tata Steel was at Rs 615.95, up 1.48%; Sesa Goa was at Rs 338.20, up 1.38%; M&M was at Rs 783.85, up 1.38% and Bharti Airtel was at Rs 309.40, up 1.09%.

In midcap space, Wockhardt, Rolta, BF Utilities, Rajesh Exports and Sterling International gained 2.4-4%. However, Kwality Dairy, Chambal Fertiliser, IVRCL Infrastructure, Triveni Engg and Cholamandalam fell 4-5.77%.

In smallcap space, Newtime Infra surged 19.5%. Orient Abrasive, SE Investments, TTK Prestige and MSP Steel were up 6-8% while Garware Poly plunged 20%. Polyplex Corp, Nagarjuna Fertiliser, Splash Media and Vinati Organics lost 7.8-9%.

SBI, Delta Corp, Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, Coal India and ICICI Bank were the most active shares on exchanges.

About 1292 shares advanced while 1869 shares declined on BSE. Nearly 289 shares were unchanged.

Nifty volatile; L&T, ITC, NTPC, DLF dip, TCS, Bharti up

The benchmark Nifty started the session on a consolidation mode after a sell-off in previous week and seen all-time closing high in Diwali week - mixed trend in previous two weeks. Indices were marginally in negative trend; cement, realty, power and ADAG companies' shares were on seller's radar.

Among the frontliners, Hero Honda, Reliance Communications, Maruti, Reliance Capital, ACC, Ambuja Cements, Tata Power Reliance Power, ITC, Sun Pharma, DLF, L&T and HDFC were witnessing selling pressure.

Tata Steel (up 1.3% post better-than-expected numbers), HDFC Bank, Power Grid (fixed FPO price at Rs 90 a share), IDFC and Bhart Airtel were on buyers' radar.

At 9:17 hours IST, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading at 20084, down 72 points and the 50-share NSE Nifty was at 6051, down 20 points.

The CNX Midcap fell 22 points to 9435. About 506 shares advanced while 351 shares declined on NSE.

Midcap & Smallcap space:

Sical Logistics was up 1.6% (Coffee baron, Siddhartha of Café Coffee Day bought 10% stake in company on Friday at Rs 80/share).

Delta Corp was up 3%. Chambal Fertiliser and RCF were up 1-1.5%. LT Foods rose 3%.

REI Agro was down 5% and Educomp down 3.6%. Alok Industries was down 2.8%, Hotel Leela down 5% and Ispat down 4%. Bajaj Hindusthan fell 1.5%.

Results Reaction

Unitech was down 1.2%, IVRCL Infra tumbled 5.3% (Q2 net profit at Rs 23.3 crore vs Rs 48.8 crore) and Balrampur Chini fell 4% (Q4 loss at Rs 78.3 crore versus profit of Rs 42.7 crore).

India Cement was down 2% (reported net loss of Rs 33.6 crore).

Deccan Chronicle rose 1.8%, as board approved share buyback and set a price up to Rs 180/share. It won't exceed Rs 270 crore.

Shree Renuka Sugars was down 3.7% while Mahindra Satyam rose 1.75% ahead of numbers.

HPCL rose 1.4%.

Global cues:

Asian markets were mixed in trade. Shanghai was down 0.9%, Straits Times down 0.37% and Taiwan down 0.65%. However, Nikkei was up 0.7% and Kospi up 0.12%.

The US markets witnessed worst week in three months on Chinese interest rates fears, debt troubles in European countries & Dubai loan prepayment news. There was no news on China interest rate hike during the weekend.

Germany has been pressing Ireland to seek aid before November 16 (European finance ministers meeting); IMF says Ireland can manage on its own.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 91 points or 0.8% at 11192 on Friday; it was down 2.2% for week while was up 7.3% year-to-date (YTD).

Commodities

CRB Commodity Index went down 3.6%, worst single-session slide in more than a year

CRB Index losd for third straight day after it set a two-year high

December crude oil contract was down 3.3% at USD 84.88/barrel, worst levels since September 3 – fell the most in three weeks

December natural gas contract fell 2.8% at USD 3.81 per MMBtu, extending its sell off to a third consecutive session

December gold contract was down 2.6% at USD 1365.5/ounce

December silver contract fell 5.2% at USD 25.99/ounce

March sugar futures were down 11.6% at USD 0.2621, largest drop since 2002

March sugar was down over 21% on back of large-than-expected surplus in India's sugar crop; ICE Futures US raised margin on contracts by 65% and EU plans to boost sugar experts and also lift import duties

F&O cues:

Total Futures Open Int down Rs 2119 crore

Total Options Open Int up by Rs 6406 crore

Stock Futures add 31 lakh shares in Open Int

Stock Futures added 17 cr shares last week

Nifty Futures net add 68,000 shrs in Open Int

Nifty Futures at 20-pts prem versus 37.5-pts prem

Nifty Open Int PCR down to 1.13 from 1.26

Nifty Puts add 8.3 lakh shares in Open Int

Nifty Calls add 84.6 lakh shares in Open Int

Highest OI outstanding shifts from 6500 call (69.4 lakh) to 6300 call (88.9 lakh)

Nifty Nov 6100 Call add 29 lakh shares in Open Int

Nifty Nov 6200 Call add 23 lakh shares in Open Int

Nifty Nov 6300 Call add 17.3 lakh shares in Open Int

Nifty Nov 6400 Call add 16.4 lakh shares in Open Int

Nifty Nov 5900 Put add 7.6 lakh shares in Open Int

Nifty Nov 6300 Put shed 14.4 lakh shares in Open Int

Nifty Nov 6200 Put shed 9 lakh shares in Open Int

Nifty Nov 6500 Call shed 8.3 lakh shares in Open Int

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Sensex and Nifty ends Down

The BSE benchmark Sensex declined sharply by 848 points and the Nifty by 241 points following all-round selling led by realty, banking, PSU and metal segments due to weak industrial output data amid distinctly sluggish global advices.

Selling was so strong that all indices ended lower between 0.23 per cent and 6.52 per cent.

The Bombay Stock Exchange 30-share barometer index opened slightly higher at 21,041.97 and moved up further to 21,075.71 but immediately declined to 20,108.40 before closing the week at 20,156.89, showing a sharp loss of 848.07 points or 4.04 per cent from its last weekend's level.

The NSE 50-share nifty also tumbled by 240.80 points or 3.81 per cent to 6,071.65 from 6,312.45 previously.

Asian stocks closed sluggish on Friday with the China's Shanghai Composite index dipping by 5.16 per cent, its biggest percentage loss in 14 months, as wary investors offloaded financial and resource counters on expectations of further monetary tightening. Other key indices from Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan too ended in the red.

Worries over sovereign debt levels in Europe also prompted investors to scale down exposure in riskier assets like equities. European markets too displayed a weak trend on concerns over the Ireland's debt problems and China's overheating economy. .

TVS Motor Company Ltd

TVS Motor Company Ltd

Rs. 79.25 0.70 (0.89%)

Date: November 12, 2010

Ashuu Kakkarr - Tech Analyst, ashuukakkarr.com (Hold)

The stock had a good rise from a low of 30 in February this year to a high of 93. However, profit booking looks on the anvil and the stock might come down to the support levels of 60-48-40.

AK Prabhakar - Equity Analyst (Sell)

The two wheeler segment is likely to perform but the market is overvalued at this time so wait for correction to buy.



Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd(Hold)

Rs. 347.70 -13.85 (-3.83%)

Date: November 12, 2010

Ashuu Kakkarr - Tech Analyst, ashuukakkarr.com

The stock has support at 310-240 levels. The resistance is at 378-405 levels. Hold with a target of 465.




AK Prabhakar - Equity Analyst

The company has successfully completed phase III trials for its HIV associated diarrhea drug. The company would be selling it in 124 countries. Bullish on the stock so hold with a target of 450-475 in a year.


Aashish Tater's top picks for your portfolio

On RSWM

We have been recommending this stock right from Rs 108 levels and we had a modest target on the stock close to Rs 240-250 levels, the reason being that the company owns 20% into Bhilwara Energy. The LNG Bhilwara Group company we feel has got brand equity in terms of Mayur which is reflected into the current bottomline of the company.

At current market price, the stock is trading at close to the valuation that it deserves for its core business. But with Bhilwara Energy IPO coming in the next two-three quarters, this company can get rerated in no time. On a marketcap of just Rs 450 crore, the company’s stake in Bhilwara Energy is valued at close to the Rs 400 crore mark because in 2007-2008 IFC picked up a 10.48% stake for close to Rs 200 crore.

We feel this stock has still got some steam left and it can be traded in and out into this particular range till the stock achieves the target of Rs 240-250.

On Suprajit

Suprajit Engineering is one stock that we have upgraded yesterday itself. This is one stock which would definitely hog the limelight being in a space that has been the market flavour - automobiles. We like this particular story is because their subsidiary, Gills Cable Ltd was bought back by Suprajit, 50% for a consideration of Rs 25 crore sometime back.

If I see the potential for Gills Cable Ltd itself, it will be valued close to Rs 100-150 crore two-years down the line. That means the company's current marketcap would not justify the value of the subsidiary. In the current September quarter performance for the company, they posted close to 0.65 paise EPS and we feel that this continuous robust performance is going to continue even further going forward.

It has tie-ups with Hyundai, Swaraj Mazda, Hero Honda and Bajaj Auto – so it has been in the premium segment. In fact, Bajaj Auto and Hero Honda depend on this particular company for 80% of their raw material needs with regards to breaks, cables etc. So we feel this stock has got a tremendous potential.

Someone who has a potential to hold and trade into the stock from a two-three year perspective, this is a clear-cut multibagger. In fact, we have been recommending this stock right from Rs 50 levels, after that the stock had gone for a split as well as bonus.

We feel still there is tremendous potential left into the stock and this is one clear-cut multibagger looking at the valuation front also except for tyre stocks. Not a single ancillary unit is into a sub-10 levels P/E multiple. This particular company is trading at a P/E multiple of less than 10 and is a market leader in the space. We feel even if we assign a P/E multiple of 12-13 times for a year forward, the stock can easily trade at Rs 35-40 range. However, we have a modest target of Rs 30 for the year end.

On Godawari Power

Godawari Power is a very interesting stock, both from a medium-term to long-term perspective. This Hira group flagship company has not deserved a valuation that it is right now trading at. In terms of the reserves of the company’s coal mines, they own close to 63 million tonne of coal reserves in Nakia I and II based in Madanpur where their consortium is 1,243 million tonne.

For the next ten years the company will have no raw material problem. On the other hand, if I see the iron ore reserves in the Aridongri area that is based in Chhattisgarh, they have close to 13 million tonne of reserves. The company does not require this much reserves even if they operate at a full capacity for the next seven-eight years.

What is interesting in this company is that promoters have been slowly increasing their stake and right now they own 58-59% of the total float. We feel this stock has definitely got a rerating chance and looking at our peer recommendation into the stock, with a consensus EPS of over Rs 44 for FY12. We have been a bit cautious about the same. We are pegging EPS of close to Rs 37.

If I see another interesting aspect in terms of ratio, the enterprise value to EBITDA for the company is at 4.5 times which is trading at 40-50% discount to its larger peers like Tata Steel and JSW Steel. We do not feel that this stock should trade at these deep discounts given the huge reserves that it has and with a strong promoter group like Hira.

We feel the stock can easily get rerated and can give 20-25% return even from current levels. We have been recommending this stock as a small entry close to Rs 210-220 levels because the stock has been consolidating in this Rs 210-230 range. The stock can easily test that Rs 270-285 levels where our target is also set at from a six-nine month perspective.

On SPARC

SPARC is our third best pick after Wockhardt and Natco Pharmaceuticals. Sun Pharma Advance Research Company is India is one of the most innovative companies. This company will hog the limelight sometime in 2012-2013. This stock can definitely be traded during this two-three year gap. Why we are betting on this particular stock is due to a couple of reasons, it is the NCE business Sun 1344H where its competitor's patents are getting expired and Sun 461, the NDDS (new drug delivery system).

These two particular molecules have a market potential of over USD 14 billion. I am talking about the entire segment. If this company gets even 5% or 6%, which I feel they can definitely get because of strong promoter group, Sun Pharma, we feel the stock can be a multibagger if someone has the potential to hold this stock from 5-10 years perspective.

If I see the potential of the business, if the firm clocks close to Rs 700-800 crore in 2012 which is what we are banking on. The company can easily get in and trade a marketcap to sales ratio of close to 5-6 times. That means at current marketcap of Rs 2,000 crore, the company can be double in the next three years.

What is more interesting, if someone looks into the entire cycle, there will be some downturns and upturns. The stock has been rangebound for quite sometime in the range of Rs 90-110 level. It has also been a Diwali pick for a modest target of Rs 180 but we have been recommending entry and exit points to our clients.

Recently we have recommended an exit close to Rs 109-110 levels but we would again enter into the stock somewhere close to Rs 96-97 levels for one simple reason that this stock will definitely be in momentum because of its attractive business in future and also be a trading momentum stock. So from both perspectives, this stock can give humongous returns if someone trades as well as invest into the stock from a longer-term perspective.

Tata Steel swings to profit, Q2 net at 2,000 crore

MUMBAI: Tata Steel, the world's seventh largest steel company, posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 1,968 crore for the September quarter of FY11, defying street estimates.

The company earns more than 70% from its European business, Corus, which it acquired in 2007 for $13 billion, and the remaining from India and other south-east Asian countries. Tata Steel's management attributed the improvement in earnings to a mix of volume and value growth and gains from part sale of its investment portfolio. Top company officials explained that while in India it sold more steel at lower prices, in Europe, it clocked lower volumes but at higher prices during the July to September period. Tata steel reported a consolidated loss of Rs 2,720 crore in the corresponding period of last fiscal.

The company's net sales grew 11% from Rs 25,276 crore to Rs 28,091 crore. Other income saw a significant increase to Rs 814 crore compared to Rs 18 crore in the September quarter of FY10. It divested its interest in Malaysia's Southern Steel for $72 million and sold some shares in a couple of Tata Group companies.

In a parallel development, Tata Steel on Friday said that it plans to raise up to Rs 7,000 crore to knock off some debt—mainly taken to purchase Corus—on its books and to fund steel projects. The largest company within the Tata Group said it plans to spend Rs 15,000 crore this year. Though the company didn't reveal the exact financial instrument it would opt for, but added that it is looking at an equity offering, including shares, with differential voting—it may be recalled that group company Tata Motors was among the first to go for such an issue— global depository receipts, debentures and foreign currency bonds. The company's overall debt at the end of the September quarter was Rs 48,096 crore ($10.7 billion). Its debt-equity ratio is currently at 1.5: 1, and the company's intention is bring it to 1:1. During the first half of FY11, it repaid $600 million of debt. Raw material accounted for 36% of total expenditure, with iron ore being the most volatile.

Tata Steel's MD HM Nerurkar said that the Indian steel market expects to see robust demand from construction, infrastructure and auto sectors in the coming quarters. To meet the higher demand, it is expanding its steel capacity by three million tonnes in Jamshedpur.

With regard to its European operations, Tata Steel Europe's MD Karl-Ulrich Kohler said the demand outlook in Europe is uncertain and it would continue to focus on controlling costs. Tata Steel announced the financial results after the close of market hours .